2024 Election Odds: RCP

Who's in the Lead?

According to Real Clear Politics (RCP), as of August 24th, 2023, President Joe Biden is the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, with a 37.0% chance of winning.

Former President Donald Trump is a close second with a 34.2% chance of winning the election. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is a distant third with a 15.5% chance of winning.

What Factors Are Influencing the Odds?

There are a number of factors that are influencing the 2024 election odds. These include:

• The state of the economy
• The outcome of the 2022 midterm elections
• The candidates' fundraising abilities
• The candidates' charisma and likeability
• The candidates' ability to appeal to undecided voters

What Are the Implications of the Odds?

The RCP odds suggest that the 2024 presidential election is likely to be a close race between Biden and Trump. DeSantis is a potential spoiler, but he would need to gain significant ground in the polls in order to win the election.

The odds also suggest that the outcome of the 2024 election is likely to have a significant impact on the future of the United States. A Biden victory would likely lead to a continuation of the current Democratic agenda, while a Trump victory would likely lead to a reversal of many of the policies that have been enacted during the Biden administration.